THE FIFTH DOWN; Defenses Give Edge to the Giants and the Steelers

Lions (10-6) at Saints (13-3)

Saturday, 8 p.m.

Line: Saints by 10.5

From the birth of the N.F.L. until 1960, no quarterback ever threw for more than 3,000 yards. As recently as 1997, it was still possible for Jeff George to lead the league with less than 4,000 yards passing: 3,917, to be exact. For most of football’s history, a 3,000-yard season was an accomplishment, 4,000 yards were a feat and 5,000 yards marked the distance from home to the nearest hardware store, not an attainable passing goal.

Saturday will mark the first time that two quarterbacks who threw for over 5,000 yards in a season will face each other. While Drew Brees – who broke Dan Marino’s single-season record by throwing for 5,476 yards – is getting his due as one of the league’s best passers, Matthew Stafford (5,038) could not even muster a Pro Bowl selection. Stafford’s numbers are partially a reflection of passing inflation, but he has also been unfairly overshadowed this season, not just by Brees and Aaron Rodgers, the favorite to be the N.F.L.’s most valuable player, but by his own team’s tortuous climb out of a decade-long funk, the acrobatic excellence of his best receiver and his defense’s attempt to jump-start the economy by increasing the demand for yellow penalty flags.

When the Lions have the ball The Lions use shotgun formations on 68 percent of all offensive plays, the highest percentage in the N.F.L. (the league average is 40.1 percent). Stafford’s primary weapon, Calvin Johnson, was the third-most targeted receiver in the league with 158 passes. (Atlanta’s Roddy White and New England’s Wes Welker finished first and second.) Johnson compensates for the Lions’ poor running game by doubling as the team’s top threat in the red zone: he has caught nine touchdowns passes on plays that start inside the 20-yard line. Tight ends Brandon Pettigrew and Tony Scheffler also make great short-yardage options (10 combined red-zone targets), and they work underneath so the rookie receiver Titus Young can supplement Johnson as a deep threat. The Lions have running backs, but they ignore them, and you can, too.

Gregg Williams’s blitz-heavy defense yielded just 33 sacks and 16 takeaways this season. Only the Patriots and the Packers allowed more passing yards than the Saints, and they compensated by producing 31 and 23 interceptions to the Saints’ nine. Many of those passing yards were the result of opponents trying to keep pace with the Saints’ offense, but Williams does not have the same manpower he had when the Saints reached the Super Bowl two years ago.

When the Saints have the ball Whole articles can be filled with impressive Brees statistics, but we will settle for one: his completion percentage over the last three seasons is 69.9, better than all but three quarterbacks have ever mustered in a single season. Sean Payton’s offense makes the most of Brees’s accuracy and ability to distribute the ball to legions of potential targets. Nine different players have caught at least 10 passes for the Saints this season, led by Jimmy Graham, a college basketball forward turned mismatch nightmare at tight end. Despite their reputation as a pass-happy team, the Saints often line up in the I-formation and pound the ball. Saints running backs combined for 2,127 yards, and Brees’s long touchdown throws are often set up by play-fakes.

The Lions’ notorious defensive line recorded just 36 sacks this season, though they committed 43 penalties in the process. The Lions rarely blitz, so while their sack totals are low, Cliff Avril, Ndamukong Suh, Kyle Vanden Bosch and their linemates provide enough pressure for Jim Schwartz to keep seven defenders back in coverage, minimizing the risk of breakdowns.

Pick In what will probably be a shootout, the Lions’ inability to run the football and their tendency to spot opponents 100 penalty yards will matter much more than their lack of postseason experience. Saints

Bengals (9-7) at Texans (10-6)

Saturday, 4:30 p.m.

Line: Texans by 3

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Ryan Still Confident in Falcons’ Offense

FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. (AP) — Matt Ryan and the Falcons are expecting better offensive production in Atlanta’s important final regular-season game against Carolina.

The Falcons can win the NFC South division title and home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs by beating the on Sunday. A loss wouldn’t be the end to the season, but it would definitely take away much of the luster.

Ryan has thrived in clutch situations this season, but when his last two passes fell incomplete in Atlanta’s loss to New Orleans Monday night, it put new importance on Sunday’s contest against the Panthers.

Ryan’s nickname gained popularity as he led Atlanta to six wins this season with go-ahead scores in the fourth quarter or overtime. “Matty Ice” needs another strong showing Sunday.

Ryan said the 17-14 loss to the showed that late-game victories can’t be taken for granted.

“There’s nothing given,” Ryan said Thursday. “There’s nothing automatic in this league. But with that said, we have the same expectation that in a tight game, late in the game, we’re going to make the plays that we need to win. We just didn’t do that at the end of the last game. We had some chances and just didn’t make the plays that we needed to.

“It’s a learning experience. It keeps us motivated and hopefully we do a better job of it this week.”

Ryan’s clutch performances helped lead to his first Pro Bowl selection this week. Late-game heroics from Ryan have become so common Atlanta players say they were shocked to see the Falcons stopped late in the loss to the Saints.

“There was never a doubt in our mind we were going to win,” said fullback Ovie Mughelli. “It just didn’t happen in this game. It hurt so much because we’re so used to winning after eight wins in a row.

“We fully expected to drive down there and somehow to at least get in field goal range. When it didn’t happen, I think a lot of us were stunned.”

The Falcons were held to 215 total yards and Ryan completed 15 of 29 passes for only 148 yards and a touchdown in the loss.

The Saints contained Roddy White, who leads the NFL with 109 catches. White was shadowed by an extra defensive back and had only three catches for 43 yards, including a 7-yard catch for a touchdown.

The Falcons say they must do a better job with their running game and passing to tight end Tony Gonzalez and receivers Michael Jenkins and Douglas when defenses focus on White.

The Falcons have five newly named Pro Bowl players from their offense: Ryan, Mughelli, Turner, White and Gonzalez. Ryan said an offense with so many weapons shouldn’t be held to 14 points.

“I think we just need to play better,” Ryan said. “We had opportunities to take advantage of some of the things they were doing against us, and we just didn’t play well enough.

“I think it comes down to us. … We need to execute better and if we do that we’ll give ourselves a chance.”

Falcons coach Mike Smith said the Panthers may try defensive strategies that worked for the Saints, including extra attention on White.

“That’s been going on for quite some time and over the last couple of weeks probably more snaps of it,” Smith said. “Again, when you’re a Pro Bowl player and you have the production Roddy has, you’re going to get that attention.

“We have to be prepared to make sure we have a plan to offset that. … I think when they take something away they’re going to leave something open, and we’ve got to make sure we can find it and go ahead and execute because they can’t take everything away.”

The Falcons won 31-10 at Carolina on Dec. 12.

If Carolina beats Atlanta and New Orleans beats Tampa Bay, the Falcons would lose home-field advantage and the first-round bye.

Ryan said there’s no danger of taking the Panthers lightly with so much on the line.

“I think everybody in here knows what’s at stake,” Ryan said. “We don’t need to talk about it. I don’t think anybody is looking further than this week.”

Notes: White and LB Curtis Lofton were given routine days off from practice. DT Jonathan Babineaux (shoulder) and center Todd McClure (ankle) also did not practice. DE (groin) and DE Kroy Biermann (calf) were limited. … Smith said he was proud to have seven players on the Pro Bowl team. He mentioned Babineaux, PK Matt Bryant and OT Tyson Clabo as also deserving.

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